The Winner Estimate of ESC 2016

Sweden

Stockholm, Sweden
semifinals 10th & 12th May
final 14th May

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The estimate will be counted:

- 20% of points based on the history points: Average points 2004-2015 (26th March)
- 20% of points based on the National Jury Score 2016 (based on Pre-chart) (1st May)
- 20% of points based on the betting odds: ODDSCHECKER.COM (5th May)
- 20% of points based on the show (choreography, live singing, dresses etc.) This will be judged according to the rehearsals in Stockholm. (8th May)
- 20% of points based on the phenomenon (media interest, audience reactions etc.) This will be judged in Stockholm. (8th May)

See how we estimated last year!

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Winner Estimate 2016


(real results in brackets)

final update 8th May 2016 (results 18th May)


FINALSEMI1SEMI2 COUNTRYHISTORYPRE-CHARTODDSSHOWPHENOMENONTOTAL
1(3)1(1)RussiaRussia+ 25
2(2)1(1)AustraliaAustralia+ 24
3(1)2(2)UkraineUkraine+ 23
4(7)2(2)ArmeniaArmenia+ 18
5(16)ItalyItaly+ 17
6(15)3(8)LatviaLatvia+ 16
7(4)4(5)BulgariaBulgaria+ 15
8(5)SwedenSweden+ 15
9(18)5(10)SerbiaSerbia+ 14
10(6)FranceFrance+ 10
11(-)6(13)NorwayNorway+ 8
12(-)3(14)IcelandIceland+ 7
13(22)SpainSpain+ 7
14(19)4(4)HungaryHungary+ 7
15(25)5(9)Czech RepublicCzech Republic+ 6
16(12)6(3)MaltaMalta+ 5
17(26)GermanyGermany+ 4
18(13)7(7)AustriaAustria+ 4
19(23)8(10)CroatiaCroatia+ 4
20(14)7(7)IsraelIsrael+ 2
21(17)9(6)AzerbaijanAzerbaijan+ 2
22(10)8(3)BelgiumBelgium- 1
23(8)9(6)PolandPoland- 2
24(9)10(4)LithuaniaLithuania- 3
25(-)10(11)Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina- 4
-(21)11(8)CyprusCyprus- 4
-(11)12(5)NetherlandsNetherlands- 5
-11(17)DenmarkDenmark- 5
-13(18)EstoniaEstonia- 6
-14(15)FinlandFinland- 10
26(24)United KingdomUnited Kingdom- 11
-12(12)BelarusBelarus- 11
-15(16)GreeceGreece- 11
-13(11)FYR MacedoniaFYR Macedonia- 12
-14(16)AlbaniaAlbania- 12
-(20)15(9)GeorgiaGeorgia- 12
-16(15)IrelandIreland- 17
-16(17)MoldovaMoldova- 18
-17(13)MontenegroMontenegro- 21
-17(14)SloveniaSlovenia- 21
-18(12)San MarinoSan Marino- 23
-18(18)SwitzerlandSwitzerland- 24

- if there's a tie, better points counts in this order: phenomenon, show, betting odds, pre-chart and history
- if there's still a tie, better average points (2004-2015) counts


#1 Russia: Sergey Lazarev#2 Australia: Dami Im#3 Ukraine: Jamala

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Here are the entries in ESC 2016:

# COUNTRYPERFORMER(S)TITLE
1AlbaniaAlbaniaEneda TarifaFairytale
2ArmeniaArmeniaIveta MukuchyanLoveWave
3AustraliaAustraliaDami ImSound of silence
4AustriaAustriaZOËLoin d'ici
5AzerbaijanAzerbaijanSamraMiracle
6BelarusBelarusIvanHelp you fly
7BelgiumBelgiumLauraWhat's the pressure
8Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & HerzegovinaDalal & Deen feat. Ana Rucner and JalaLjubav je
9BulgariaBulgariaPoli GenovaIf love was a crime
10CroatiaCroatiaNina KraljićLighthouse
11CyprusCyprusMinus OneAlter ego
12Czech RepublicCzech RepublicGabriela GunčíkováI stand
13DenmarkDenmarkLighthouse XSoldiers of love
14EstoniaEstoniaJüri PootsmannPlay
15FinlandFinlandSandhjaSing it away
16FranceFranceAmirJ'ai cherché
17FYR MacedoniaFYR MacedoniaKaliopiDona
18GeorgiaGeorgiaNika Kocharov & Young Georgian LolitazMidnight gold
19GermanyGermanyJamie-Lee KriewitzGhost
20GreeceGreeceArgoUtopian land
21HungaryHungaryFreddiePioneer
22IcelandIcelandGreta SalómeHear them calling
23IrelandIrelandNicky ByrneSunlight
24IsraelIsraelHovi StarMade of stars
25ItalyItalyFrancesca MichielinNo degree of separation
26LatviaLatviaJustsHeartbeat
27LithuaniaLithuaniaDonny MontellI've been waiting for this night
28MaltaMaltaIra LoscoWalk on water
29MoldovaMoldovaLidia IsacFalling stars
30MontenegroMontenegroHighwayThe real thing
31NetherlandsNetherlandsDouwe BobSlow down
32NorwayNorwayAgneteIcebreaker
33PolandPolandMichał SzpakColor of your life
34RussiaRussiaSergey LazarevYou are the only one
35San MarinoSan MarinoSerhatI didn't know
36SerbiaSerbiaSanja Vučić ZAAGoodbye (shelter)
37SloveniaSloveniaManuEllaBlue and red
38SpainSpainBareiSay yay!
39SwedenSwedenFransIf I were sorry
40SwitzerlandSwitzerlandRykkaThe last of our kind
41UkraineUkraineJamala1944
42United KingdomUnited KingdomJoe and JakeYou're not alone

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