The Winner Estimate of ESC 2018

Portugal

Lisbon, Portugal
semifinals 8th & 10th May
final 12th May

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The estimate will be counted:

- 20% of points based on the history placings: Average placings in finals 2004-2017 (10th April)
- 20% of points based on the National Jury Score based on Pre-chart 2018 (1st May)
- 20% of points based on the betting odds: ODDSCHECKER.COM (5th May)
- 20% of points based on the show (choreography, live singing, dresses etc.) This will be judged according to the rehearsals in Lisbon. (7th May)
- 20% of points based on the phenomenon (media interest, audience reactions etc.) This will be judged in Lisbon. (7th May)

See how we estimated last year!

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Winner Estimate 2018



(real results in brackets)
updated 7th May 2018 (results 14th May)


POSFINALSEMI1SEMI2 COUNTRYHISTORYPRE-CHARTODDSSHOWPHENOMENONTOTAL
11(14)1(7)BulgariaBulgaria+ 23
22(7)1(2)SwedenSweden+ 20
33(15)2(1)NorwayNorway+ 17
44(8)2(5)EstoniaEstonia+ 16
55(17)3(6)UkraineUkraine+ 15
66(2)3(2)CyprusCyprus+ 14
77(1)4(1)IsraelIsrael+ 14
88(13)FranceFrance+ 13
99(5)ItalyItaly+ 13
1010(6)5(3)Czech RepublicCzech Republic+ 12
1111(25)6(10)FinlandFinland+ 11
1212(20)4(4)AustraliaAustralia+ 11
1313(9)5(5)DenmarkDenmark+ 10
1414(-)7(12)BelgiumBelgium+ 10
1515(-)8(14)GreeceGreece+ 8
1616(10)6(3)MoldovaMoldova+ 6
1717(4)GermanyGermany+ 5
1818(21)7(10)HungaryHungary+ 4
1919(3)9(4)AustriaAustria+ 3
2020(18)8(7)NetherlandsNetherlands+ 3
2121(23)SpainSpain+ 1
2222(26)PortugalPortugal0
2323(12)10(9)LithuaniaLithuania- 2
2424(-)9(14)PolandPoland- 4
25-(11)11(8)AlbaniaAlbania- 4
2625(19)10(9)SerbiaSerbia- 4
27-12(11)AzerbaijanAzerbaijan- 5
28-11(15)RussiaRussia- 6
29-13(18)FYR MacedoniaFYR Macedonia- 7
30-14(15)ArmeniaArmenia- 8
31-15(16)BelarusBelarus- 9
32-12(12)LatviaLatvia- 9
33-16(17)CroatiaCroatia- 11
34-17(13)SwitzerlandSwitzerland- 12
3526(24)United KingdomUnited Kingdom- 12
36-(16)18(6)IrelandIreland- 13
37-13(13)MaltaMalta- 13
38-14(11)RomaniaRomania- 14
39-15(18)GeorgiaGeorgia- 15
40-(22)16(8)SloveniaSlovenia- 16
41-19(19)IcelandIceland- 18
42-17(16)MontenegroMontenegro- 19
43-18(17)San MarinoSan Marino- 22

- if there's a tie, better points counts in this order: phenomenon, show, betting odds, pre-chart and history
- if there's still a tie, better average placing (2004-2017) counts


#1 Bulgaria: Equinox#2 Sweden: Benjamin Ingrosso#3 Norway: Alexander Rybak

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Here are the entries in ESC 2018:

# COUNTRYPERFORMER(S)TITLE
1AlbaniaAlbaniaEugent BushpepaMall
2ArmeniaArmeniaSevak KhanagyanQami
3AustraliaAustraliaJessica MauboyWe got love
4AustriaAustriaCesár SampsonNobody but you
5AzerbaijanAzerbaijanAisel MammadovaX my heart
6BelarusBelarusAlekseevForever
7BelgiumBelgiumSennekA matter of time
8BulgariaBulgariaEquinoxBones
9CroatiaCroatiaFranka BatelićCrazy
10CyprusCyprusEleni FoureiraFuego
11Czech RepublicCzech RepublicMikolas JosefLie to me
12DenmarkDenmarkRasmussenHigher ground
13EstoniaEstoniaElina NetšajevaLa forza
14FinlandFinlandSaara AaltoMonsters
15FranceFranceMadame MonsieurMercy
16FYR MacedoniaFYR MacedoniaEye CueLost and found
17GeorgiaGeorgiaIriaoFor you
18GermanyGermanyMichael SchulteYou let me walk alone
19GreeceGreeceYianna TerziOneiro mou
20HungaryHungaryAWSViszlát nyár
21IcelandIcelandAri ÓlafssonOur choice
22IrelandIrelandRyan O'ShaughnessyTogether
23IsraelIsraelNetta BarzilaiToy
24ItalyItalyErmal Meta & Fabrizio MoroNon mi avete fatto niente
25LatviaLatviaLaura RizzottoFunny girl
26LithuaniaLithuaniaIeva ZasimauskaitėWhen we're old
27MaltaMaltaChristabelleTaboo
28MoldovaMoldovaDoReDoSMy lucky day
29MontenegroMontenegroVanja RadovanovićInje
30NetherlandsNetherlandsWaylonOutlaw in 'em
31NorwayNorwayAlexander RybakThat's how you write a song
32PolandPolandGromee feat. Lukas MeijerLight me up
33PortugalPortugalCláudia PascoalO jardim
34RomaniaRomaniaThe HumansGoodbye
35RussiaRussiaJulia SamoylovaI won't break
36San MarinoSan MarinoJessika feat. Jenifer BreningWho we are
37SerbiaSerbiaSanja Ilić & BalkanikaNova deca
38SloveniaSloveniaLea SirkHvala, ne!
39SpainSpainAlfred & AmaiaTu canción
40SwedenSwedenBenjamin IngrossoDance you off
41SwitzerlandSwitzerlandZibbzStones
42UkraineUkraineMelovinUnder the ladder
43United KingdomUnited KingdomSuRieStorm

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